Freight market update - 14 May 2025

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• The U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis have agreed to a ceasefire through a deal facilitated by Oman.

• As part of the agreement, the Houthis will cease attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.

• India and Pakistan have banned each other’s cargo from transiting through their ports after the April 22 tourist attack in Kashmir.

• There are no formal restrictions on foreign vessels transiting Indian or Pakistani waters.

• Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, reported that U.S. container imports from China have dropped by 30% to 40% due to high tariffs.

• Clerc highlighted that not all Chinese imports can be easily substituted, both in product variety (SKUs) and volume.

• Maersk revised its global container market growth forecast down from 4% to a range between 1% and 4%.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• India and Pakistan have banned each other’s cargo from transiting through their ports after the April 22 tourist attack in Kashmir.
• India imposed a total ban on all goods originating from or exported to Pakistan, citing national security.
• The Indian ban came into effect immediately on May 2.
• In response, Pakistan implemented a reciprocal ban but allowed shipments already in transit to proceed if properly documented (e.g., bills of lading or letters of credit).
• The sudden bans caught ocean carriers off guard, leading to concerns over contractual obligations.
• Many carriers are now avoiding Pakistani ports such as Karachi and Port Qasim on westbound routes to the U.S. and Europe.
• While direct trade between India and Pakistan is limited, the bans have affected third-country cargo moving through Indian networks.
• There are no formal restrictions on foreign vessels transiting Indian or Pakistani waters.
• However, some services are being rerouted due to uncertainty.
• For example, containers from Pakistan bound for India are now being offloaded in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
• With no signs of easing tensions, carriers may need to revise network rotations and rely more on alternate transshipment hubs like Colombo or Jebel Ali.
• While regional transshipment can help alleviate pressure, the disruption adds to existing supply chain strains already worsened by the Red Sea crisis.
• The impact extends beyond maritime shipping to air cargo operations.
• Airlines such as Lufthansa and Air France are now avoiding Pakistani airspace.
• Both India and Pakistan have closed their airspace to each other’s airlines.
• These closures have forced longer flight paths and raised operational costs.
• Early May saw increases in both Freight All Kinds (FAK) and Premium Plus (PP) rates.
• There are signs that some second-half (2H) rate levels might be adjusted downward, though this has not been officially confirmed.
• Demand is gradually recovering after sharp declines experienced in April.
• Trade volume from China to the U.S. dropped by 60% last month, leading to widespread blank sailings across major routes.
• Forward bookings from mid-May onward are on the rise.
• This increase is largely driven by China-based shippers restarting shipments in response to recent tariff changes and a temporary easing in trade restrictions.
• About 23% of weekly sailings have been cancelled this week.
• Carriers are aggressively managing capacity to align with the recovering demand environment.
• Freight rates from India and Bangladesh have remained stable in early May, with only minor adjustments observed.
• Some rate extensions have been confirmed through late May.
• Schedule reliability on the Indian Subcontinent (ISC)–EU route has improved, increasing from 38.1% to 47.4% in recent months.
• MSC has suspended its Rotterdam port call from Chittagong due to persistent congestion.
• A direct call to Rotterdam is expected to resume later in May via the Australia Express service.
• Ongoing political tensions between Pakistan and India continue to impact routing options.
• Cargo is being transshipped through Colombo, the Middle East, and Singapore to avoid direct routes.
• Some carriers have implemented additional surcharges to cover elevated operational risks.
• Although a ceasefire is currently in effect, service risks persist due to the unresolved nature of the conflict.

Turkey → North America

• Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, reported that U.S. container imports from China have dropped by 30% to 40% due to high tariffs.
• This significant decline is forcing U.S. retailers to seek alternative inventory sources.
• Businesses are now sourcing from Mexico, Canada, and domestic U.S. vendors while awaiting clarity on trade relations with China.
• While not yet critical, there’s a risk of empty shelves this summer if inventory gaps aren’t filled soon.
• Clerc highlighted that not all Chinese imports can be easily substituted, both in product variety (SKUs) and volume.
• He warned that the impact may soon be felt widely across various sectors in the U.S. market.
• Maersk revised its global container market growth forecast down from 4% to a range between 1% and 4%.
• The company maintained its earnings outlook between zero and $3 billion but cautioned about potential negative growth.
• New vessels are entering the market, increasing capacity, but security risks still prevent resuming Red Sea shipping despite a ceasefire.
• There are early signs of improvement in global trade relations.
• A trade agreement has been announced with the U.K., and discussions with China are in progress.
• Clerc suggested that if several trade deals materialize within 90 days, global demand could bounce back to 4% growth.
• However, if tariffs persist, the U.S. economy could face recession risks.
• Clerc warned that with limited viable alternatives to China in terms of scale and diversity, rising costs will likely be passed on to consumers.

North America → Turkey

• The U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis have agreed to a ceasefire through a deal facilitated by Oman.
• As part of the agreement, the Houthis will cease attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.
• However, the Houthis stated their operations against Israel will continue despite the ceasefire.
• Security experts caution that it is too early to assume the region is safe for shipping.
• Analysts from Dryad warn that the area remains unstable and that vessels, particularly those linked to Israel, are still at significant risk.
• Dryad emphasized that the ceasefire announcement does not yet warrant a change in their regional risk assessment.
• For shipping operations to fully normalize, war risk insurance premiums must be removed—something that has not occurred yet.
• The Joint War Committee in London has maintained its high-threat designation for the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.
• This designation persists even though no confirmed attacks on commercial vessels have been reported since late 2024.
• The risk of further conflict remains high without a broader and more inclusive ceasefire agreement.
• Chief Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam stated that the current agreement does not involve Israel in any capacity.
• Earlier in 2024, Houthi forces halted attacks during a truce between Israel and Hamas, but resumed hostilities after that truce fell apart.
• The continued classification of the Red Sea as high-risk may offer financial benefits to shipping companies, especially container carriers.
• Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope has absorbed surplus capacity and pushed freight rates higher.
• Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, noted that among all geopolitical disruptions affecting container shipping in 2025, the Red Sea conflict remains the most impactful.
• Sand added that any substantial return to the region would create major ripple effects across global shipping markets.

Terminal Updates

Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• The waiting time for all vessels calling APMT is up to 6 hours. Maher Terminals LLC reports vessel waiting times averaging around 6 hours.
• Average gate turn times are 46 minutes for single transactions and 75 minutes for double transactions.
• New cranes at APMT are set to be commissioned within the next two weeks.
• Although berth space will remain constrained, two vessels will be able to operate simultaneously along east-facing berths.
• APMT New York is currently experiencing high demand for gate appointments, particularly near vessel cut-off days.
• Customers are advised to deliver export cargo early—during the initial freight acceptance window—when appointment availability is typically higher.

Norfolk:

• The waiting time for a berth is up to 12 hours at both Norfolk International Terminal (NIT) and Virginia International Gateway (VIG).
• Average gate turn times are 28 / 44 minutes for single and double transactions at NIT, and 42 / 72 minutes for single and double transactions at VIG.
• Virginia International Gateway is back in operation, though multiple cranes remain down for modifications or electrical work, with limited estimated return times.
• Crane #4 at NIT remains out of service since April 16 with no current update.

Charleston Terminal:

• The waiting time is 6 hours at Wando Welch Terminal and no waiting time at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 19 / 20 / 15 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal, North Charleston Terminal, and Leatherman Terminal respectively.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth is 1 day for class 1 and 1.8 days for class 2 vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 35 / 53 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• Import dwell time is 7.4 days. Rail dwell time is 1 day.

Houston:

• Waiting time is up to 24 hours at Barbours Cut Terminal and 6 hours at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times are 35 / 53 minutes at Barbours Cut and 37 / 56 minutes at Bayport for single and double transactions respectively.
• Loaded import dwell time is 3.6 days at Barbours Cut and 3.6 days at Bayport.
• Yard use remains high at Barbours Cut.
• The Port of Houston is adjusting receiving days and cut-offs on short notice to maintain terminal fluidity.

Oakland:

• Average import deliveries are taking up to 4.0 days at Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT).
• Average gate turn times are 90 minutes.
• Three cranes at OICT are currently out of service.
• Berth maintenance is ongoing at OICT with one berth down at a time through Week 19.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• No waiting time at Husky Terminal or Washington United Terminal in Tacoma. No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell is 2.1 days at Husky and 3 days at T18.
• Average gate turn times are 44 minutes at T18 and 51 minutes at Husky.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• All terminal gates are running as published and in line with the Pier Pass program.
• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.5 days; on-dock rail dwell is 4.4 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging 3.3 / 5.6 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• Average terminal gate turn time is between 43 - 47 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Chicago – Constrained on 20’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.