Freight market update - 3 July 2025

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• As the U.S. tariff pause set for July 9 draws near, airfreight demand from Asia is surging, even as ocean freight volumes decline.

• Freight forwarders report a spike in bookings coming not from China, but from Taiwan and Southeast Asia, where capacity is tightening.

• According to Rotate’s data, intra-Asia capacity increased by 2% last week.

• Recent airspace closures have forced Qatar Airways to divert or reroute nearly 100 flights.

• U.S. importers frontloaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid expected tariff hikes, leaving warehouses stocked and reducing short-term demand.

• The U.S. tariff pause ends on July 9, and China’s tariff pause expires on August 14, likely causing a temporary spike in cargo at West Coast ports.

• BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen predicts U.S. importers will rely on existing inventories post-pause, limiting further volume growth.

• If the proposed 55% tariff on Chinese goods takes effect, the Trans-Pacific trade could face even deeper declines in the latter half of 2025.

• BIMCO has revised its 2025 volume growth projection for Europe and the Mediterranean from 3.5% to 6%, citing steady consumer spending and economic confidence across the EU.

• Peel Ports, the UK’s second-largest port operator, has announced multiple upgrades: a GBP 35 million cement terminal in Liverpool, a GBP 30 million ro-ro berth in Sheerness, and a GBP 10 million capacity boost at Heysham.

• On the Transpacific route, spot rates surged in early June but dropped by over 60% within a few weeks.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• As the U.S. tariff pause set for July 9 draws near, airfreight demand from Asia is surging, even as ocean freight volumes decline.
• Freight forwarders report a spike in bookings coming not from China, but from Taiwan and Southeast Asia, where capacity is tightening.
• A global forwarder executive noted a strong rush to move cargo before the deadline, resulting in a capacity crunch in Southeast Asia due to limited infrastructure.
• Airfreight rates from Taiwan and South Asia are climbing, largely driven by AI server shipments to major U.S. tech firms like Amazon, Google, and Meta.
• Some manufacturers are shifting production from China back to Taiwan to sidestep tariffs, further increasing demand.
• Unlike previous years, China’s e-commerce demand remains subdued.
• However, the “China-plus-one” approach is fueling intra-Asia trade, with components sourced in China and finished in Taiwan or Southeast Asia.
• According to Rotate’s data, intra-Asia capacity increased by 2% last week.
• Outside of Asia, instability in the Middle East is creating further disruption.
• Recent airspace closures have forced Qatar Airways to divert or reroute nearly 100 flights.
• These unexpected route changes are causing ripple effects in global airfreight and significantly impacting freight forwarding, especially for Europe-bound cargo.
• The outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain and volatile.
• Many shippers are canceling split orders and consolidating shipments into larger batches due to unpredictable lead times.
• Traditional peak seasons may not follow the usual patterns this year.
• Frontloading has complicated inventory tracking, making visibility a continuing challenge.
• On the Transpacific route, spot rates surged in early June but dropped by over 60% within a few weeks.
• In the Asia–Europe corridor, carriers have resumed blank sailings and tightened space allocations, causing headhaul rates to rise steadily into July.
• Transatlantic westbound rates remain generally high, but early signals indicate U.S. East Coast volumes in August may fall below June levels, hinting at an earlier-than-usual seasonal peak.
• Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have led Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to halt calls at Haifa and lengthen their Suez Canal rotations, increasing transit times by several days.
• Additional concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and potential Gulf airspace closures are complicating routing decisions further.
• These geopolitical risks have also triggered new surcharges, with Xeneta data showing Shanghai–Jebel Ali tariffs rising 55% month-over-month.
• Freight rates from India and Bangladesh have risen sharply in early July due to tight capacity and added surcharges.
• Space remains limited, and shippers are advised to book at least two weeks in advance to avoid cargo being offloaded.
• Mother-vessel utilization is high, causing cargo rollovers at major feeder hubs like Port Klang, Singapore, and Colombo, leaving little room for delay buffers.
• Ongoing congestion at Nhava Sheva and Mundra is being worsened by blank sailings and shortages in container stacks.
• Inland container availability is restricted in key hinterland markets, especially with select carriers.
• Schedule reliability on the Indian Subcontinent–Europe route has improved nearly eight percentage points month-on-month, now reaching the low 60% range.
• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd lead in on-time arrivals on this corridor, both achieving mid-90% performance levels, followed by Evergreen in the low 70s.
• The joint CMA CGM–MSC loop continues to be the dominant service on this route, with few alternative options available under current conditions.

Turkey → North America

• Shipping analysts forecast a downturn in the Trans-Pacific market, while Asia-Europe trade shows signs of strengthening.
• U.S. importers frontloaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid expected tariff hikes, leaving warehouses stocked and reducing short-term demand.
• As a result, Trans-Pacific freight volumes and spot rates are expected to decline through the rest of 2025, even if tariff relief is extended beyond the 90-day pause.
• The U.S. tariff pause ends on July 9, and China’s tariff pause expires on August 14, likely causing a temporary spike in cargo at West Coast ports.
• According to Xeneta’s Peter Sand, demand will likely drop sharply after the cargo surge, as inventories will already be full.
• BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen predicts U.S. importers will rely on existing inventories post-pause, limiting further volume growth.
• He also warns that higher tariffs and slower economic growth could significantly weaken import growth in the U.S.
• If the proposed 55% tariff on Chinese goods takes effect, the Trans-Pacific trade could face even deeper declines in the latter half of 2025.
• In contrast, trade deals with the UK and a likely agreement with the EU are expected to reduce tariffs to 10%, easing the burden for European importers.
• Meanwhile, Asia-Europe trade is picking up pace, with spot rates to Northern Europe jumping 49% since May 31.
• Visibility platform eeSea reports that ocean carriers plan to cut capacity on the Asia-Europe route in August, which may push rates up further if demand remains strong.
• BIMCO has revised its 2025 volume growth projection for Europe and the Mediterranean from 3.5% to 6%, citing steady consumer spending and economic confidence across the EU.
• Although disruptions in the Red Sea have decreased, Houthi-related threats to shipping continue to pose a risk.
• S&P Global cautions that despite fewer reported incidents since December 2024, the region remains dangerous for commercial vessels.
• A return to normal routing via the Suez Canal could ease capacity constraints, but current assumptions still favor detours around Africa.
• Rasmussen notes that resuming transit through the Red Sea and Suez Canal could reduce overall vessel demand by as much as 10%.
• Demand has declined since the early-June peak, easing booking pressure across many lanes.
• Yard utilization at the Port of Antwerp remains high, further strained by a national strike on 25 June and rail disruptions in Hamburg.
• These factors are placing additional stress on inland logistics operations.
• Port call delays persist at major North European hubs like Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven, as well as key Southern ports including Piraeus, Valencia, and Genoa.
• Chassis and container shortages are impacting Central European origins such as Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Eastern Germany—carrier haulage is recommended where possible.
• Equipment shortages are also reported at Lisbon, Leixões, and Mersin, reducing availability for backhaul bookings.
• Most carriers have postponed their Peak Season Surcharges for North Europe, and both West and East Mediterranean regions, until July.

North America → Turkey

• Demand has begun to ease in July following the strong May–June peak, leading carriers to reduce rate levels on both U.S. West and East Coast headhaul routes.
• Several blank sailings have been reinstated to help balance capacity, although lift availability remains adequate for shippers with well-planned volumes.
• Carriers are adjusting their service networks for July to optimize efficiency and coverage.
• Gemini is adding two new West Coast loops, including a new call at Tianjin.
• Maersk’s TP8 service will now include Tianjin and Qingdao on its eight-week rotation.
• A second Maersk service will introduce a Yantian call on the return leg from Vietnam through South China.
• Schedule reliability improved by approximately 4.5% from April to May.
• Average vessel delays have decreased by about 0.6 days compared to the same period last year.
• The UK government is supporting major port expansion initiatives to boost employment and economic development, aligned with optimistic long-term trade forecasts.
• Proposed amendments to the National Policy Statement for Ports aim to accelerate planning approvals and lower costs for port operators.
• These policy changes are designed to give ports the confidence to move forward with large-scale infrastructure investments.
• Several major operators have already unveiled expansion projects in response to the improved policy environment.
• DP World plans to invest GBP 1 billion in two new berths at London Gateway, positioning it as the UK’s largest container port.
• The Port of Southampton is committing GBP 60 million to install four new cranes capable of handling ultra-large vessels.
• Peel Ports, the UK’s second-largest port operator, has announced multiple upgrades: a GBP 35 million cement terminal in Liverpool, a GBP 30 million ro-ro berth in Sheerness, and a GBP 10 million capacity boost at Heysham.
• The British Ports Association, representing ports responsible for 86% of UK trade, has welcomed the policy reforms.
• The Association emphasized the need for faster planning processes due to increasing demand for cargo handling, green fuels, and offshore energy.
• According to the Department for Transport’s freight forecast, UK port traffic is projected to grow by 1.2% to 425.8 million tonnes by 2035 compared to 2023.
• By 2050, total port traffic is expected to rise by 7.8% to 453.5 million tonnes.
• The largest growth is anticipated in unitized freight, projected to rise by 56.7%, and dry bulk cargo, forecasted to grow by 61.7%.
• General cargo freight is also expected to increase by about 12%, though more slowly, due to higher containerization and declining forestry product volumes.

Terminal Updates

Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• The waiting time for all vessels calling APMT is up to 6 hours. Maher Terminals LLC reports vessel waiting times averaging around 6 hours.
• Average gate turn times are 47 minutes for single transactions and 78 minutes for double transactions at APMT terminals and 44 minutes for Maher Terminals.
• The average import rail dwell time is 0.7 days at APMT and 1 day at Maher Terminals.
• The last 2 cranes on APMT East berth to be operational by end of June.

Norfolk:

• No waiting time for a berth for Gemini and Non-Gemini Vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 30 / 44 minutes for single and double transactions at NIT, and 30 / 47 minutes for single and double transactions at VIG.
• The average Import dwell time is 2.7 days.
• Crane #4 at NIT remains out of service since April 16 with no current update.

Charleston Terminal:

• No waiting time for Gemini and non-Gemini vessels at Wando Welch Terminal.
• No waiting time at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 18 / 20 / 15 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal, North Charleston Terminal, and Leatherman Terminal respectively.
• Average Import dwell time is 1.6 days at North Charleston Container Terminal.
• Average Import dwell time is 1.6 days at Wando Welch Container Terminal.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth is 0.7 days for class 1 and 1.2 days for class 2 vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 32 / 51 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• Import dwell time is 7.3 days. Rail dwell time is 1.3 days.

Houston:

• Waiting time is up to 3 hours at Barbours Cut Terminal and 6 hours at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times are 40 / 62 minutes at Barbours Cut and 30 / 47 minutes at Bayport for single and double transactions respectively.
• Loaded import dwell time is 3.5 days at Barbours Cut and 3.5 days at Bayport.
• Yard utilization at Barbours Cut Terminal remains high.
• To maintain terminal fluidity, the Port of Houston is adjusting receiving days and cut-off times on short notice.
• Effective August 1, 2025, Excessive Import Dwell Fees will be applied to loaded refrigerated (reefer) import containers once free time expires.
• These fees will also apply during terminal truck gate closures due to scheduled terminal shutdowns.

Oakland:

• No waiting time at Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT).
• Average gate turn time is 90 minutes for OICT.
• Average import deliveries can take up to 4 days at OICT.
• Oakland International Container Terminal has 2 cranes out of order.
• The Oakland International Container Terminal will be closed on July 2 and 7, 2025.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• No waiting time at Husky Terminal or Washington United Terminal in Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell is 2.2 days at Husky and 3 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are 48 minutes for T18.
• Average gate turn times are 36 / 61 minutes for single and double transactions at Husky.
• Husky will offer hoot gates on June 30, July 1, 2 and 3, 2025.
• T18 and HUSKY will be closed on July 4 and 7, 2025.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• All terminal gates are running as published and in line with the Pier Pass program.
• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 2.8 days; on-dock rail dwell is 2.8 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging 4.5 / 6.6 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• Average terminal gate turn time is between 64 - 74 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.