Freight market update - 7 May 2025

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• A large number of blank sailings is poised to affect container shipping routes between Asia and the U.S.

• The most severe reductions will occur on services to the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.

• According to Sea-Intelligence, nine sailings scheduled for the Asia–U.S. East Coast route will be blanked during May 5–11 (Week 19), resulting in a 42% capacity reduction.

• A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson shared on Wednesday that 30% of its U.S.-bound shipments from China have been canceled by customers.

• The Port of Rotterdam maintained its status as Europe’s largest port by total volume in Q1 2025.

• Over 2,000 freight items in the U.S. will be reclassified under a new LTL (less-than-truckload) freight classification system starting July 19, 2025.

• The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is shifting these items to density-based classes.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast downward to 1.8%, a reduction from the earlier estimate of 2.7%.

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global merchandise trade to contract by -0.2% this year.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• A large number of blank sailings is poised to affect container shipping routes between Asia and the U.S.
• The most severe reductions will occur on services to the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.
• According to Sea-Intelligence, nine sailings scheduled for Asia–U.S. East Coast route will be blanked during May 5–11 (Week 19), resulting in a 42% capacity reduction.
• The U.S. West Coast will face 10 blank sailings from April 28 to May 3, slashing capacity by 28%.
• Another round of blank sailings is expected from May 12 to 18 on the West Coast route, reducing capacity by 25%.
• Sea-Intelligence reports that these cancellations are being announced with very short notice.
• This sudden timing is seen as a clear indication that container demand is sharply declining.
• The analyst emphasized that this trend is currently one of the most reliable indicators of short-term container demand shifts.
• In an earlier analysis, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, predicted that if booking volumes dropped significantly, last-minute blank sailings to the U.S. would follow.
• Drewry’s Blank Sailings Tracker also supports this pattern, listing 72 planned sailing cancellations through the end of May.
• Of those, 56% impact the Trans-Pacific trade lanes.
• An additional 31% affect Asia–Europe services.
• The remaining 14% relate to Trans-Atlantic routes.
• Drewry stated that the number of canceled sailings is likely to increase further in the coming weeks.
• The surge in cancellations is expected mainly on Trans-Pacific Eastbound services.
• Booking cancellations continue to rise, and some vessels may leave Chinese ports with substantial unused capacity through May.
• A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson shared on Wednesday that 30% of its U.S.-bound shipments from China have been canceled by customers.
• Meanwhile, the company has observed a noticeable increase in shipping demand from Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
• The container shipping industry is facing significant uncertainty due to a weakening global trade outlook.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast downward to 1.8%, a reduction from the earlier estimate of 2.7%.
• The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global merchandise trade to contract by -0.2% this year.
• Maritime analyst Drewry has downgraded its global port throughput outlook, forecasting a -1% drop in global container handling volumes for 2025.
• This includes all container movements—loaded, empty, transshipment, inbound, and outbound.
• North America is expected to bear the brunt of the decline, with container volumes forecasted to shrink by -5.5% in 2025, equating to approximately 4 million TEU.
• A further -4.6% drop in North American volumes is projected for 2026.
• Greater China is also expected to experience a -4.8% decline in container volume in 2025, followed by a rebound of 1.6% growth in 2026 as it shifts to new markets.
• Trade policy uncertainty is central to the current disruption in the shipping sector.
• Simon Heaney, Senior Manager at Drewry, stated that the lack of a clear policy direction makes forecasting highly unreliable.
• He remarked that “any predictions… have an extremely short shelf life” due to the unpredictable nature of the trade environment.
• Heaney added that the industry is in “coin-flip territory” as it awaits the outcome of the 90-day pause on tariffs, set to end in early July.
• Ongoing tariffs and protectionist policies are already affecting container trade patterns.
• Drewry estimates U.S. imports from China could fall by 4.5 million TEU.
• Imports from other countries may also decline by an additional 0.3 million TEU as companies adjust to tariff uncertainty and explore alternative production locations.
• Countries such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, Malaysia, Poland, and Turkey are expected to gain more shipping traffic due to this sourcing shift.
• Southeast Asia is projected to experience double-digit growth in container volumes over the next two years.
• Container line executives warn that a potential rebound in Asian imports could overwhelm key U.S. ports.
• Import volumes from China have dropped by as much as 50% due to tariffs.
• However, large retailers like Walmart and Target have resumed shipping, hinting at a possible surge in import activity.
• The timing and magnitude of this rebound are still unclear and may hinge on whether tariffs are lifted or importers absorb higher costs to replenish inventories.
• Ports may not be ready for the surge; Maersk North America's president, Charles van der Steene, stated, “The system is not fundamentally better than it was five years ago.”
• He emphasized that such a surge will likely lead to disruptions.
• The biggest vulnerabilities may lie beyond the ports—importers could face critical shortages in warehouse space and chassis availability.
• Rail systems may also be stressed by a spike in international intermodal shipments, according to industry leaders.
• MSC U.S. operations president, Fabio Santucci, warned that terminals running at 70–90% capacity for extended periods could cause systemic breakdowns.
• He added that containers left at terminals for over 10 days could trigger widespread backlogs.
• Abandoned cargo presents an emerging risk; Hapag-Lloyd’s North America president, Stuart Sandlin, noted some exporters have already walked away from Chinese contracts.
• If importers begin doing the same, especially for high-value cargo, the result could be bankruptcies.
• The uncertainty around tariffs is forcing many shippers to reevaluate their supply chains mid-transit.
• According to Santucci, 60–70% of customers are reconsidering shipping routes from China.
• Some have paused shipments or requested that cargo be returned to China.
• There’s also a growing trend of holding shipments at transshipment ports before final loading onto U.S.-bound vessels.

Turkey → North America

• The Port of Rotterdam maintained its status as Europe’s largest port by total volume in Q1 2025.
• However, the combined Port of Antwerp-Bruges outpaced Rotterdam in container throughput.
• Rotterdam’s overall cargo volume fell by 5.8%, totaling 103.7 million tons, down from 110.1 million tons in Q1 2024.
• The decline was mainly due to lower activity in both tank and dry bulk segments.
• Despite a 2.2% year-over-year increase in container throughput to 3.3 million TEU, Rotterdam saw a -1.1% drop in container tonnage.
• The fall in tonnage was attributed to an -8% decrease in full container exports.
• Port authorities linked the decline to weak industrial demand in Europe and a reduction in transshipment activity.
• Antwerp-Bruges increased its market share within the Hamburg-Le Havre port range to 30.5%.
• The port also rose one place in the global ranking of largest ports, now standing at 14th.
• Antwerp-Bruges handled 3.4 million containers, slightly more than Rotterdam’s 3.3 million.
• However, its total container tonnage was just 38.4 million tons—well below Rotterdam’s 103.7 million tons.
• Executives from both ports expect challenging months ahead due to global container market instability.
• These challenges are linked to recent disruptions caused by evolving trade policies.
• Over 2,000 freight items in the U.S. will be reclassified under a new LTL (less-than-truckload) freight classification system starting July 19, 2025.
• The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is shifting these items to density-based classes.
• This update will significantly affect how shipping rates are calculated across the industry.
• The NMFTA has stated that the changes are aimed at simplifying the current freight classification system.
• During a recent webcast hosted by the Journal of Commerce, many shippers voiced concerns about possible rate fluctuations.
• Shawn Galloway, Vice President of Pricing at Pitt Ohio, said most bills of lading (BOLs) currently lack sufficient details, making it difficult to project pricing impacts.
• Galloway warned that waiting until July to prepare could be risky for shippers.
• He noted the reclassifications could increase the likelihood of shipment inspections, reweighing, and billing adjustments.
• The NMFTA highlighted that this shift toward density-based classification has been in development for years.
• Keith Peterson, NMFTA’s Director of Operations, stated that while 100 items had already moved to density-based classes, the transition is now being rapidly accelerated.
• “This year we put this transition on turbocharge,” Peterson said, reinforcing the urgency and scope of the changes.

North America → Turkey

• Persistent congestion continues to affect major Northern European container ports including Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and London Gateway.
• A global forwarder’s visibility platform reports that operations are “heavily disrupted” as a result.
• The delays are caused by a combination of full terminal yards, labor shortages, strike actions, limited inland transport options, and evolving alliance networks.
• These issues are further exacerbated by a steady flow of imports arriving from Asia.
• Another global forwarder described the disruption as “systemic by nature,” suggesting it is likely to persist or reoccur.
• They also noted that the new Gemini Cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk is making it more difficult to maintain operational efficiency as new service rotations are implemented.
• Low inland water levels on the Rhine have reduced barge capacity, shifting more freight to already strained rail and road transport systems.
• In Hamburg, containers are accumulating, with rail shipments delayed by up to 10 hours.
• Some trains in Hamburg are being rerouted up to 200 kilometers due to a landslide.
• The Port of Le Havre is working to clear container backlogs caused by several strikes in April.
• UK ports such as Felixstowe and Southampton are also experiencing delays in vessel handling.
• On April 29, the Port of Antwerp-Bruges was shut down by a strike—the fourth nationwide strike in Belgium in recent months.
• A spokesperson for the Port of Antwerp-Bruges stated that nearly all ports in Northern Europe face similar issues due to shared carriers and hinterland connections.
• They added that congestion in Antwerp is comparable to other ports, not worse, when speaking to The Loadstar.

Terminal Updates

Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• The waiting time for all vessels calling APMT is up to 6 hours. Maher Terminals LLC reports vessel waiting times averaging around 6 hours.
• Average gate turn times are 46 minutes for single transactions and 75 minutes for double transactions.
• New cranes at APMT are set to be commissioned within the next two weeks. Although berth space will remain constrained, two vessels will be able to operate simultaneously along east-facing berths.
• APMT New York is currently experiencing high demand for gate appointments, particularly near vessel cut-off days. Customers are advised to deliver export cargo early—during the initial freight acceptance window—when appointment availability is typically higher.

Norfolk:

• The waiting time for a berth is up to 12 hours at both Norfolk International Terminal (NIT) and Virginia International Gateway (VIG).
• Average gate turn times are 31 / 48 minutes for single and double transactions at NIT, and 39 / 68 minutes for single and double transactions at VIG.
• Virginia International Gateway is back in operation, though multiple cranes remain down for modifications or electrical work, with limited estimated return times.
• Crane #4 at NIT remains out of service since April 16 with no current update.

Charleston Terminal:

• The waiting time is 6 hours at Wando Welch Terminal and 3 hours at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 19 / 20 / 15 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal, North Charleston Terminal, and Leatherman Terminal respectively.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth is 1 day for class 1 and 1.5 days for class 2 vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 32 / 53 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• Import dwell time is 14 days. Rail dwell time is 1 day.

Houston:

• Waiting time is up to 24 hours at Barbours Cut Terminal and 12 hours at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times are 37 / 56 minutes at Barbours Cut and 28 / 45 minutes at Bayport for single and double transactions respectively.
• Loaded import dwell time is 3.7 days at Barbours Cut and 3.6 days at Bayport.
• Yard use remains high at Barbours Cut.
• The Port of Houston is adjusting receiving days and cut-offs on short notice to maintain terminal fluidity.

Oakland:

• Average import deliveries are taking up to 4.0 days at Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT).
• Average gate turn times are 89 minutes.
• Three cranes at OICT are currently out of service.
• Berth maintenance is ongoing at OICT with one berth down at a time through Week 19.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• No waiting time at Husky Terminal or Washington United Terminal in Tacoma. No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell is 2.1 days at Husky and 3 days at T18.
• Average gate turn times are 29.5 minutes at T18 and 55 minutes at Husky.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• All terminal gates are running as published and in line with the Pier Pass program.
• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.4 days; on-dock rail dwell is 4.3 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging 3.8 / 6.1 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• Average terminal gate turn time is between 38 - 47 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Chicago – Constrained on 20’ chassis.
• Louisville – Deficit on 40’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.